August 7, 2026 | 06:14 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The first clues for the 2026–2027 winter forecast are already emerging, with El Nino officially in place and expected to play a key role in shaping weather patterns across the United States in the months ahead. While winter is still months away, long-range forecasting begins well before autumn arrives.
According to the Almanac, forecasters monitor a range of large-scale climate signals throughout the year. These include warming ocean temperatures associated with El Nino, shifting wind patterns in the upper atmosphere, and solar activity, all of which can influence winter weather.
Rather than relying on a single indicator, its seasonal outlook is based on how these factors interact over time.
Solar Activity
Several factors beyond El Nino help shape the upcoming winter, including solar activity. The Sun remains relatively active even though Solar Cycle 25 has passed its peak, with sunspot activity still elevated.
The Almanac said periods of higher solar activity have historically been associated with warmer-than-average temperatures, although it emphasized that solar activity is only one of several natural patterns used in its long-range seasonal forecasts.
Ocean Patterns
Meteorologists are also monitoring several long-term ocean patterns that can shape winter weather across North America. These include the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which influence storm tracks, temperatures, and the distribution of moisture. Another key factor is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a climate pattern that can affect the Pacific jet stream and, in turn, alter winter storm paths.
These ocean patterns help determine how much moisture reaches winter storms, where they are most likely to develop, and whether the season is likely to be more active or relatively quiet.
Polar Vortex
One of the atmospheric features being closely watched is the polar vortex, a large pool of cold Arctic air that normally remains confined near the North Pole. When the circulation weakens or shifts, colder air can spread farther south, increasing the likelihood of wintry conditions across parts of the United States. The Almanac said changes in the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), a pattern of high-altitude equatorial winds, may also influence the behavior of the polar vortex later in the season.
Despite the early signals, El Nino alone cannot determine how the winter will unfold. It will continue tracking ocean patterns in both the Atlantic and Pacific, upper-atmosphere winds, and solar activity before issuing its complete seasonal outlook.
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