December 18, 2025 | 05:52 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Indonesia’s Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said global economic growth is projected to hover around 3 percent over the 2025–2026 period, supported in part by easing monetary policy in the United States.
Speaking at the APBN Kita press conference on Thursday, December 18, 2025, Purbaya said the outlook reflects expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percent.
Despite ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China, he said global economic prospects for 2025 remain relatively resilient.
“In line with market expectations and the easing of U.S. monetary policy, global growth is projected to remain stable,” Purbaya said.
The 3 percent growth estimate is based on projections from several international institutions, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October, the World Bank in June, as well as more recent forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Bloomberg.
While the IMF projects global growth of 3.1 percent in 2026, the World Bank forecasts a lower rate of 2.4 percent, with the OECD and Bloomberg both estimating 2.9 percent.
Purbaya also highlighted signs of recovery in global manufacturing. Manufacturing activity in several developing countries was recorded at 40.9 percent, while the global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 50.5 in November, remaining in expansion territory.
“Some emerging markets, including Indonesia, continue to show solid manufacturing performance,” he said.
On commodity markets, Purbaya pointed to continued price swings across key sectors. Coal prices slipped to US$108.6 per ton as of December 25, 2025, down 21.9 percent from a year earlier and 13.3 percent since the start of the year.
Crude palm oil traded at US$969.79 per ton, posting a year-on-year increase of 9.4 percent, although it remained 11.8 percent lower year to date. Metal commodity prices also weakened, falling to US$14,392 per ton, down 10.3 percent year on year and 6.1 percent over the year so far.
Energy and industrial metals followed a similar trend. Brent crude oil dropped to US$59.68 per barrel, marking declines of 14.5 percent year on year and 20 percent year to date, while copper prices fell sharply to US$11,737 per ton, down 6.6 percent from a year earlier and nearly 34 percent since the beginning of 2025.
“The weakening prices of Brent oil, coal, and nickel are primarily driven by oversupply,” Purbaya said.
Read: Why Prabowo Is Advocating Palm Oil Plantation Expansion in Papua
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