TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Less than 12 hours before a deadline set by US President Donald Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was due to expire, the Republican announced he would postpone planned strikes on the Islamic Republic's power plants.
Trump on Monday claimed "very good and productive" talks with Tehran had resulted in the five-day delay, although Iranian news agencies disputed his comments, reporting that there had been "no contact" between the two sides.
Washington is trying to force Iran to end its effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies are shipped.
The strait's closure has left tankers stranded for several weeks, sending fuel prices soaring. But following Trump's latest announcement, the price of Brent crude—the international standard—fell more than 8% to around $103 (€88.8) a barrel.
Trump had issued the ultimatum late Saturday on his social media platform Truth Social, demanding that Iran fully reopen Hormuz to commercial shipping to help end the war.
The US president warned that failure to comply within 48 hours would prompt the United States to "hit and obliterate" Iranian power plants, "starting with the biggest one first."
Where are Iran's biggest power plants?
Iran has 98 operational natural gas power plants across the country, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) calculated that these plants account for about 85% of total electricity generation.
If Trump makes good on his original vow to target the biggest site first, the Damavand power station would be firmly in the crosshairs.
Damavand, located in Pakdasht, about 50 kilometers (31 miles) southeast of the capital Tehran, has a generation capacity of approximately 2,868 megawatts, or MW, of electricity, making it Iran's largest.
Damavand runs primarily on natural gas with diesel backup. The Iran Open Data Center calculated that Damavand supplies around 43% of Tehran's electricity, a city of over 10 million people.
Other major potential targets include the Ramin power plant in the oil-rich southwest, Shahid Salimi (Neka) on the Caspian Sea coast, the Kerman facility in the southeast and the Shahid Montazeri power station in Isfahan, Iran's third-largest city.
These plants have an electricity-generating capacity of between 1,600 and 2,400 MW each.
Several media outlets have speculated that Trump could have meant the Bushehr nuclear plant, Iran's only operational nuclear power reactor.
With a 1,000 MW gross capacity, according to the World Nuclear Association, Bushehr makes a much smaller contribution to electricity generation than Damavand.
Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), warned that a strike on Bushehr would cross the "reddest line" of nuclear safety.
He said damage to the reactor core could disperse radioactivity, potentially requiring evacuations over large areas. The radiation could also impact waters in the Persian Gulf.
How severe would the US strikes need to be?
A nationwide blackout is unlikely from US strikes on Damavand alone. Analysts note that even major damage to one large plant would be absorbed by the broader electricity network.
If US strikes on Damavand were to disable the entire facility, only around 3% to 4% of Iran's electricity capacity, which totals 98,802 MW, would be removed.
Achieving widespread or nationwide power cuts would require coordinated strikes on multiple facilities, as well as transmission lines, substations and transformers.
Synchronized strikes would cause widespread blackouts for Iran's roughly 90 million people, already strained by weeks of conflict and years of US sanctions that have curbed the Islamic Republic's oil trade.
Prolonged power cuts could severely disrupt the Iranian economy, which is already struggling with high inflation. They could also harm industrial output, communications, water supply and military operations.
This could fuel further internal instability and Trump is betting that the threat will force Tehran to make concessions over Hormuz and even to end the war.
How did Iran respond to the threat?
Iran's Fars news agency, citing an unnamed source, on Monday denied there had been direct or indirect communications with Washington.
The source said that Tehran had forced Trump to back down after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned of an equivalent retaliation.
IRGC spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaqari had previously threatened strikes on all energy infrastructure, information technology systems and water desalination plants in the region. Electricity and desalinated seawater make Gulf nations' desert cities habitable.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf had also warned that critical infrastructure, including energy and desalination plants, would face "irreversible destruction." He added that the headquarters and assets of financial entities that buy US Treasury bonds would also be "legitimate targets."
The IRGC warned that the Strait of Hormuz would remain shut until Iran's destroyed power plants are rebuilt, a move that would almost certainly push global oil and gas prices much higher.
Iran's Defense Council escalated its retaliatory threat on Monday, warning that it would lay sea mines, including floating mines, in the strait and across the Persian Gulf.
What could be the regional impact?
Gulf nations impacted by Iranian strikes on their energy facilities have so far stayed out of the conflict.
But Saudi Arabia and Qatar have already threatened severe retaliation, warning that any further attacks on their critical infrastructure—oil fields, refineries and desalination plants—would force them to respond militarily.
After Iran hit a Saudi oil refinery last week and targeted Riyadh with ballistic missiles, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan warned that the Gulf kingdom's patience with Tehran was running out.
"This pressure from Iran will backfire politically and morally and certainly we reserve the right to take military actions if deemed necessary," he said.
A further escalation could potentially draw in US-led coalition forces in the Gulf, turning the crisis into a broader regional war.
Since the war began on February 28, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain have been struck by thousands of Iranian missiles and drones, causing significant but contained damage to oil and gas facilities as well as civilian infrastructure.
More than 40 energy sites across nine countries in the Middle East have been "severely or very severely" damaged, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Read: Trump Claims US Will Take Iran's Enriched Uranium If Deal Reached
Click here to get the latest news updates from Tempo on Google News
