TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - For a long time, Bogor has been known as the Rain City for its relatively cool air. However, in recent times, residents have started to notice a significant shift. Daytime temperatures now feel noticeably hotter, regularly climbing to around 32-34 degrees Celsius, while rainfall has become less frequent than usual.
This shifting climate raises the pressing question of whether Bogor's current hot weather is still a normal seasonal variation or a sign of accelerating climate change.
Givo Alsepan, a lecturer from the Department of Geophysics and Meteorology at IPB University, stated that the temperature spike in Bogor stems from a combination of various factors, ranging from global climate phenomena and global warming to rapid urbanization that alters local land cover.
"Climatologically, the average air temperature in the Bogor region ranges from 25.5 to 27 degrees Celsius. However, during certain periods, these baseline conditions can shift due to the influence of global climate anomalies, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)," Givo said in a written statement on Thursday, July 2, 2026.
ENSO is a periodic phenomenon driven by ocean-atmospheric interactions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, oscillating between two distinct phases: El Niño and La Niña. Givo explained that during an El Niño event, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific become unusually warm, driving the epicenter of cloud formation eastward. As a result, the water vapor supply over Indonesia thins out, leading to a marked drop in rainfall.
"Currently, an El Niño phase is developing in the tropical Pacific and is projected to persist until the end of 2026. The migration of clouds away from the Indonesian archipelago toward the Pacific reduces our local cloud cover, allowing intense solar radiation to hit the Earth's surface directly. This dynamic is one of the reasons why the people of Bogor are experiencing much hotter weather than usual," he said.
However, Givo emphasized that El Niño acts merely as a short-term catalyst. Behind this seasonal trigger lies a far more profound crisis: global climate change, which drives temperatures upward year after year.
He noted that climatological data shows the average annual temperature in the Bogor region has been consistently increasing since around 1990. This local pattern mirrors the broader rise in global average temperatures fueled by global warming.
"Climate change can be said to be one of the root causes behind the rising temperatures in Bogor. Without serious mitigation efforts, this warming trend will continue," he warned.
Urban Heat Island
In addition to these global factors, dramatic changes to Bogor’s natural landscape have exacerbated the heat. The steady loss of green open spaces and the relentless expansion of concrete, built-up areas have caused surface temperatures to spike, triggering the urban heat island effect.
Citing a study by Nurwanda and Honjo (2018), Givo pointed out that urban expansion in Bogor has been remarkably aggressive, particularly during the 1997-2007 period. The temperature gap between downtown urban zones and the surrounding suburbs widened, growing from roughly 1.36 degrees Celsius in 1990 to nearly 2.26 degrees Celsius by 2017.
He stressed that these figures prove that urban development stripped of green space protections will only intensify the localized impacts of climate change. Therefore, preserving vegetation cover must be part of the city's development strategy.
"The community can contribute through greening initiatives and by designing buildings that are more heat-adaptive. Meanwhile, the government needs to step up with climate-conscious spatial planning and expansion of green open spaces. Trees are an effective natural defense to lower air temperatures, reduce the urban heat island effect, and improve the city's environmental quality," he concluded.
Read: UNICEF: Climate Crisis Takes Toll on Children's Mental Health
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