Indonesia Predicts Weaker Rupiah in 2026 to Rp16,900 Against US Dollar

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TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The government has submitted the Macroeconomic Framework and Fiscal Policy Outline (KEM-PPKF) 2026 document to the House of Representatives (DPR) during today's plenary session. The rupiah's value in 2026 is projected to weaken against the US dollar compared to this year's forecast.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati explained that the rupiah could reach a maximum of Rp16,900 per US dollar next year. "The exchange rate of the rupiah against the dollar in 2026 is estimated to be in the range of Rp16,500 to Rp16,900 per dollar," said Sri during the plenary session on Tuesday, May 20, 2025.

It is noted that the macroeconomic assumption for the 2025 State Budget (APBN) pegged the rupiah at Rp16,000 per US dollar. This indicates a weakening exchange rate assumption for 2026 compared to the current year.

Head of the Fiscal Policy Agency (BKF) Febrio Nathan Kacaribu explained the reason for the projected rupiah range. According to him, the government is accounting for the high economic volatility observed in recent months.

This volatility is attributed to global uncertainty. "It's called uncertainty; we have to make room. So, for 2026, we are providing a conservative range," he said after the plenary session.

The currently set value will undergo further discussions with the DPR and will be finalized before the preparation of the 2026 State Budget Draft (RAPBN). "This is still a fairly large range. We will prepare it conservatively and credibly," Febrio stated.

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