Prediction: Can Indonesia Upset Iran in 2026 AFC Futsal Asian Cup Final?

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TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Indonesia’s national futsal team will face Asian powerhouse Iran in the final of the 2026 AFC Futsal Asian Cup at Indonesia Arena, Jakarta, on Saturday night, February 7, 2026.

It will be Indonesia’s first-ever appearance in an Asian-level futsal final, while Iran arrive as the most dominant force in the tournament’s history.

The final sets up a clash between momentum and tradition. Indonesia enter the match buoyed by strong performances throughout the tournament, growing confidence, and the backing of a home crowd.

Iran, meanwhile, carry nearly three decades of dominance, having won 13 of the tournament’s 17 editions, an unmatched record that consistently places them among the favorites.

Iran’s authority in the 2026 tournament has also been evident statistically. They have won all five of their matches since the group stage, scoring 22 goals and conceding 11.

Under head coach Vahid Shamsaei, Iran have combined high-tempo play with varied attacking patterns, relying not only on reputation but also on aggressive, risk-taking futsal.

On paper and by history, Indonesia are clear underdogs. However, head coach Hector Souto sees that status as an advantage rather than a burden. He said the psychological pressure rests largely on Iran.

“How could we feel pressured when this is our first final?” Souto said, as quoted by Skor.id. “Iran are the ones under pressure because of their championship tradition. They are expected to win.”

Souto also highlighted Iran’s narrow margin for failure. “Out of 105 matches in the AFC Futsal Asian Cup, Iran have only lost four times. They have won 13 of 17 editions. If they lose tomorrow, it would be a major failure for them. If we lose, it is part of our process,” he said.

Beyond the mental battle, Souto acknowledged Indonesia’s limitations in terms of physical endurance and squad depth compared to Iran. As a result, Indonesia are unlikely to adopt a high-risk approach for the full 40 minutes.

“We cannot press aggressively for the entire match against a team as strong as Iran,” Souto said. “We have to play smart, control the tempo, and take the game into the final minutes with a chance to win.”

Indonesia are expected to apply selective pressing, tighten space in midfield, and capitalize on transitions. Home support could provide a decisive boost, particularly if the match remains close into the second half. In futsal, a single mistake or moment of individual brilliance can quickly alter the outcome.

Iran, however, have sought to downplay their historical advantage. Coach Shamsaei said the final should be treated as a fresh contest, independent of past achievements.

“We may have won more trophies than other teams, but tomorrow is a new match, a new day, and a new trophy,” Shamsaei said. He also expressed respect for Indonesia and its coaching staff. “We respect the Indonesian coach, but tomorrow our focus is on fair play.”

His remarks suggest Iran are determined not to be distracted by records or expectations. They remain aware that Indonesia, as hosts, bring an element that cannot be measured statistically: belief, momentum, and freedom from historical pressure.

Ultimately, the final is not only a contest of strength, but also of experience versus ambition. Indonesia may not be favored, but disciplined defending, patience, and timely risk-taking could open the door to a historic triumph.

For Iran, the match represents another opportunity to reaffirm their long-standing supremacy in Asian futsal.

Head-to-Head

  • 28/09/2022: Iran 5–0 Indonesia

Indonesia – Last Five Matches

  • 05/02/2026: Indonesia 5–3 Japan

  • 03/02/2026: Indonesia 3–2 Vietnam

  • 31/01/2026: Indonesia 1–1 Iraq

  • 29/01/2026: Kyrgyzstan 3–5 Indonesia

  • 27/01/2026: Indonesia 5–0 South Korea

Iran – Last Five Matches

  • 05/02/2026: Iraq 2–4 Iran

  • 03/02/2026: Iran 7–4 Uzbekistan

  • 01/02/2026: Iran 5–2 Afghanistan

  • 30/01/2026: Saudi Arabia 0–2 Iran

  • 28/01/2026: Iran 4–1 Malaysia

Projected Lineups

Indonesia:
Ahmad Habiebie; Rizki Xavier, Mochammad Iqbal, Israr Megantara, Firman Adriansyah
Coach: Hector Souto

Iran:
Bagher Mohammadi; Mohammadhossein Derakhshani, Mahdi Karimi, Salar Aghapour, Behrooz Azimihematabadi
Coach: Vahid Shamsaei

Prediction

If Indonesia can keep the match tight and controlled into the closing minutes, a historic upset remains possible. However, if Iran impose their rhythm early, the final may once again underline their status as the dominant force in Asian futsal.

Read: 2026 Asian Futsal Cup Finals: Indonesia to Face Iran on Saturday

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