February 22, 2026 | 12:10 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The global gold price closed at US$5,103 per troy ounce on Saturday, February 21, 2026. Consequently, the price of the precious metal in Indonesia rose to Rp3,012,000 per gram at the same time.
Ibrahim Assuaibi, Director of PT Traze Andalan Futures, estimates that the price of the precious metal could reach Rp3,052,000 per gram if the global gold price strengthens to US$5,178 per troy ounce, the first resistance level in trading next week. "That could happen on Monday," Ibrahim said via voice message on Sunday, February 22, 2026.
If there is a correction, he estimates the price of the precious metal will be at Rp2,950,000 per gram if the world gold price weakens to US$5,045 per troy ounce at the first support level on Monday, February 23, 2026.
According to Ibrahim, there are three factors influencing the fluctuation of world gold prices next week. First, is the current geopolitical situation. He said the potential for conflict in the Middle East after Israel postponed a cabinet meeting has sparked investor concern.
Ibrahim said the Israeli Prime Minister postponed his cabinet meeting and is in close communication with US President Donald Trump. He said it is highly likely that the US and Israel will launch an attack on Iran in the next few days. This potential is evident from the two US aircraft carriers that have docked in the Middle East.
Iran is also preparing its forces to resist if the US and Israel attack. According to Ibrahim, if this happens, the war will likely last a long time due to Iran's military strength.
Furthermore, Ibrahim stated that Chinese and Russian troops are already stationed in the Middle East, potentially leading to a prolonged war. This situation will disrupt global crude oil supplies, driving up prices.
As a result, the prices of derivative products will also increase, leading to inflation. This increase in inflation is what has driven the global gold price up again.
The second factor is the political climate in the United States. Ibrahim stated that the political climate in the country has become increasingly tense after the United States Supreme Court ruled that Trump did not have the authority to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs on his business partners.
This means, Ibrahim said, that the trade war sparked by Trump is illegal. In response to the Supreme Court's decision, Trump implemented a 10 percent reduction in import tariffs. Furthermore, Trump's resistance is likely to further inflame the political situation in his country.
The third factor causing gold price fluctuations is the Federal Reserve's policy. Ibrahim stated that there are indications that US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell has cut interest rates twice, despite continued improvement in US employment data, declining unemployment, and improving inflation.
He predicted that after Powell steps down in May, his successor, Kevin Walsh, would likely cut interest rates frequently. If so, Ibrahim said this would also weaken the dollar, positively impacting global gold prices.
Finally, global gold prices are influenced by supply and demand. Ibrahim stated that demand for gold is quite high, but supplies are insufficient. In fact, it is highly likely that gold production from 80 global mining companies will run out by 2028, necessitating the search for new mines to obtain the precious metal. This situation is likely to cause the global gold price to continue to surge next week.
Read: Antam Gold Prices Plunge by Rp22,000 per Gram
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