TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) revealed that the temperature of the sea surface in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is warming rapidly. Its latest monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, released on April 24, 2026, indicates the potential early arrival of El Nino, possibly between May and July. Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Head of Climate Prediction at WMO, stated that current climate models all strongly indicate the emergence of El Nino, with its intensity predicted to strengthen over the following months.
Okia added that existing climate models indicate the development of a strong El Nino. However, experts are still considering the so-called spring predictability barrier when evaluating the reliability of current predictions. He was quoted on WMO's website saying, "There is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months that follow."
WMO will release the next update at the end of May, providing clearer guidance for decision-makers for the June-August period and beyond.
El Nino and La Nina are opposing conditions of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the earth's strong climate patterns. Both can reshape global weather by influencing rainfall, drought, and extreme weather in many regions.
El Nino is characterized by increased sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Typically, this phenomenon, which means "The Little Boy" in Latin, occurs every 2-7 years and lasts for 9-12 months.
Its impact on Indonesia is generally reduced rainfall or drought, while Central American countries may experience increased rainfall.
The El Nino period of 2023-2024 contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record by combining with increased greenhouse gas emissions.
Some scientists suspect the potential development of a strong-potentially super-El Nino this year. Super-El Nino is a classification given when sea surface temperature anomalies exceed +2 degrees Celsius.
However, Okia stated that WMO does not use the term "super-El Nino" as it is not considered part of the standard operational classification.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated in its latest ENSO report on May 4, 2026, that the index is still neutral, possibly until June. Consistent with the WMO, it is only from May to July that El Nino is expected to emerge with a 61 percent chance. El Nino is likely to persist until at least the end of 2026.
The ENSO index in the Nino 3.4 region of the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean currently stands at +0.4 degrees Celsius. According to a report from NOAA, above-average sea surface temperatures have been spreading across nearly the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean since mid-April.
Read: Super El Nino Expected to Form in Later Half of 2026, Researcher Says
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