TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Global average temperatures are expected to remain near record highs for the next five years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in a report on Thursday, May 28, 2026.
The UN weather agency report confirmed that the long-term warming trend is continuing, as reported by Kyodo and quoted by Antara.
According to the WMO forecast, the annual global average temperature between 2026 and 2030 is expected to be 1.3 to 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The El Nino phenomenon—an increase in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean—has the potential to trigger a new record in 2027.
The report estimates with a 91 percent probability that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius increase compared to pre-industrial levels.
Furthermore, there is an 86 percent chance that the record high temperature recorded in 2024 will be surpassed.
The global average temperature in 2024 were 1.55 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels due to increasingly visible global warming.
According to a BBC report, temperatures in London reached 35.1 degrees Celsius on Tuesday – the UK's hottest May day on record.
The Paris Climate Agreement sets a target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
While exceeding this threshold in a single year does not mean the target is unattainable, the report highlights that record-breaking extreme heat events are becoming more frequent.
The report also notes that warming is occurring more intensely in the Arctic region.
Sea ice is expected to continue shrinking in several regions, including the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk.
The report was compiled by the UK's Met Office using data from climate forecasting agencies worldwide.
Pre-industrial levels are the average global temperature of the Earth from 1850 to 1900, before human activity and the mass burning of fossil fuels significantly altered the climate. Scientists use current temperatures as a baseline to measure how far global warming has increased.
The 1.5 degree Celsius figure is crucial for climate change because it is the primary target limit in the Paris Agreement to prevent more severe impacts of global warming, such as extreme heat waves, sea level rise, droughts, stronger storms, crop failures, and ecosystem damage.
Read: Unseasonal May Heat Wave Grips Western Europe
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