March 25, 2026 | 10:03 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - El Nino, the anomalous sea surface temperature phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that causes drought in most parts of Indonesia, will not occur until the end of this month. Available predictions indicate that this year's dry season will be exacerbated by this phenomenon.
The analysis results of the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) for the period of 24-30 March or the post-Eid 2026 period indicate that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index will still be in the neutral to weak La Nina category. However, even though La Nina is still observed, the SOI value is considered not significant enough to enhance convective patterns in the Indonesian region.
Similarly, there is no significant air flow from the eastern Indian Ocean near Africa towards the western part of Indonesia, which could enhance convective patterns.
Conversely, an increase in convective activity is anticipated based on longwave radiation anomalies from the Earth to space (OLR), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and equatorial wave activity. The areas mainly affected are in the middle to the eastern part of Indonesia, including East Nusa Tenggara, North Maluku, Maluku, West Papua, Southwest Papua, Papua, Central Papua, Papua Mountains, and South Papua.
The increase in convective activity is predicted to be reinforced by active MJO spatially on March 24-25, 2026, in the eastern part of Indonesia, supported by the Equatorial Rossby waves, Kelvin waves, and low-frequency waves that tend to be persistent. The combination of these three phenomena has the potential to increase the growth of rain clouds and rainfall, especially in the central to eastern part of Indonesia, as stated by the BMKG on Wednesday, 25 March 2026.
Meanwhile, the former tropical cyclone Narelle, which is located off the northern coast of Western Australia, is expected to increase wind speeds in East Nusa Tenggara, the Timor Sea, and the surrounding area. This system also still has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone in the southern Indian Ocean of East Nusa Tenggara.
In addition, cyclonic circulation is predicted to appear in the western Indian Ocean off Aceh and the northern Pacific off Papua, accompanied by several convergence and confluence areas stretching across parts of Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua. Strong local atmospheric instability is also still observed in several regions, including Sumatra, Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, East Nusa Tenggara, and Papua. All of these are potentially supportive of increased growth of rain clouds in these regions.
BMKG Weather Early Warnings for the Period of 24-30
March: 24-26:
- Alert (heavy - very heavy rain): Lampung, Banten, East Nusa Tenggara, and Papua Mountains.
- Strong winds: West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, South Sulawesi, Maluku, West Papua, Southwest Papua, Papua, and South Papua.
March 27-30:
- Alert (heavy - very heavy rain): Papua Mountains and South Papua.
- Strong winds: West Papua, Papua, and South Papua.
Read: BMKG: Afternoon Storms in Bogor and Tangerang, Greater Jakarta to See Cloudy Skies
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