TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) released the latest electability survey results on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. The results indicate that if the general and presidential elections were held today, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto would not win.
In the SMRC's semi-open election simulation, Prabowo came in second. "If the presidential election were held now and Prabowo ran as a candidate, he probably would not be re-elected," said SMRC Executive Director Deni Irvani in his statement on this Wednesday.
According to Deni, the survey results titled "Presidential Candidates' Electability" show that Prabowo Subianto obtained 14.5 percent of the respondents' votes. He trailed West Java Governor Dedi Mulyadi by 35 percent in the first round of voting.
Dedi Mulyadi, a Gerindra Party cadre led by Prabowo, is leading the vote by 20.5 percent. "The gap is quite significant," said Deni.
Deni explained that in the last 9 months, Prabowo's electability in the semi-open simulation decreased from 34.9 percent in the November 2026 survey to 14.5 percent in the July 2026 survey. Meanwhile, in the same period, Dedi Mulyadi's electability rose from 19.7 percent to 35 percent.
In the two-candidate election simulation, Dedi Mulyadi's lead over Prabowo grows. In a head-to-head simulation between Dedi Mulyadi and Prabowo Subianto, Dedi Mulyadi received 59 percent of the vote, while Prabowo received 28.3 percent.
Deni explained that the survey's population includes all Indonesian citizens who have the right to vote. 749 of them were randomly selected, and those with a telephone were interviewed over the phone (83.8 percent), while those without a telephone were interviewed face-to-face (16.2 percent).
This proportion is in line with the population of mobile phone users and non-users. The margin of error for this survey is approximately 3.7 percent. The latest survey was conducted from July 5-19, 2026.
Prior to Prabowo's victory in the 2024 election, the SMRC often released electability survey results. The SMRC survey results two weeks before the 2024 Election showed that the Prabowo-Gibran pair led with an electability of 57.3 percent, ahead of their competitors before the voting on February 14, 2024. The prediction was only 1.3 percent off from the General Elections Commission's final result of 58.6 percent of the votes for Prabowo-Gibran.
Read: Prabowo Inaugurates 1,204 IPDN Graduates as Indonesia's New Civil Servants
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