TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - US President Donald Trump surprised everyone on Monday by claiming that his administration had "very good and productive conversations" with Iran on ending the ongoing war, while postponing his earlier threats of escalation.
Iran quickly denied that negotiations were taking place. Nevertheless, later on Monday, Trump said he would continue the purported talks with Iranian negotiators by phone, adding that his administration had already held discussions with a "top person" in Iran, claiming the two sides reached "major points of agreement."
Speaking to reporters in Florida about whom the US has engaged with from the Iranian regime, Trump said "the most respected and the leader," but "not the supreme leader" Motjaba Khamenei.
Trump declined to identify the Iranian negotiators, saying he did not "want to get them killed."
The claims raise the question of how Trump came to this turnaround, calling for negotiations and a pause in strikes, only days after issuing a two-day ultimatum to destroy Iran's energy infrastructure.
Some, including Iranian leaders, say the US is trying to buy time as the Iran war has carried on for longer than US-Israeli expectations.
The other possibility is that after three weeks of intensive bombardment on Iran and killings of its top leaders, the cracks are finally emerging in the regime, and some moderate and pragmatic officials are ready for a settlement.
The role of intermediaries like Turkey
Analysts and sources told DW that backchannel diplomacy by Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan have played a major role in the de-escalation efforts irrespective of Tehran's denial.
Citing a Turkish source, Middle East Eye, a UK-based news site, said that Turkey "is attempting to build a unified front in negotiations to counterbalance Israeli influence, working with European, Gulf and other regional actors to help end the conflict."
But Turkey's Foreign Ministry has declined to comment on whether the country relayed messages between Iran and the United States over the weekend.
The Egyptian Foreign Ministry said it was making "constant efforts and communications" with all parties.
Pakistan, a possible venue for talks
A senior Pakistani official familiar with the issue told DW on condition of anonymity that "Islamabad has been actively engaged with both sides since the start of the war."
"Pakistan's army chief and field marshal Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif have been in contact with senior American and Iranian officials to mediate and help bring the war to an end. Islamabad could be a potential venue for high-level talks" in this regard, he said by phone.
A diplomatic source told DW that Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar is in direct contact with Iranian officials and is also engaging with leaders in Gulf countries to gather support for mediation initiatives.
Michael Kugelman, a Washington-based South Asian expert, told DW that "Pakistan is leveraging its close ties with both the US and Iran, a status few countries can boast of, and talking to both capitals to try to bring them back from the brink."
"It's unclear how far Pakistan can take these efforts, especially in terms of hosting talks on its soil, given that it's involved in its own conflict with Afghanistan and is grappling with serious security risks. But its mediation efforts have legs, and this has solidified Pakistan's status as an increasingly influential external actor in the Middle East," Kugelman stressed.
Potential Iranian interlocutors
The Pakistani official DW spoke with named Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf as contact persons in any potential dialogue with the Trump administration.
Analysts are of the view that Qalibaf is now the de-facto wartime leader of Iran following the killing of Ali Larijani, the former secretary of the country's Supreme National Security Council. The new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is yet to make a public appearance, and there are reports that he has either been killed or is severely injured.
Parliament speaker Qalibaf is deemed a "deeply ambitious" political figure, who unsuccessfully ran for president on three occasions. Citing two US officials, Politico, a US news portal, said that the 64-year-old "could lead Iran and negotiate with the Trump administration in the war's next phase."
Qalibaf denies any contact with the US.
Qalibaf, along with President Masoud Pezeshkian and Hassan Rouhani, an Iranian politician who served as president from 2013 to 2021, are seen as moderates within the Iranian regime, who could be interested in a negotiated settlement between Iran and the US.
Is the Iranian regime on the same page regarding talks?
The Iranian regime is considerably weakened by the weekslong US-Israeli strikes, but it is hard to say whether it is on the verge of splitting.
"Initially, there was an assessment that there were two Irans. Technically, there is a political side and there is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), but now it appears that both sides are speaking as one. It is true that there was a disagreement in Iran over the attacks and the intensity of attacks on Gulf countries," Ali K. Chishti, a Riyadh-based security analyst, told DW.
"Pakistan has now been assured by Iranian officials that even if they attacked Gulf countries, it would not be intense. The US has said that it would not attack the Iranian infrastructure," he added.
Chishti is of the view that the Iranians are denying the existence of a communication channel with the US due to domestic pressure, although they are willing to go ahead with the Pakistan-led mediation efforts.
"Tehran needs a guarantee that the US-Israeli attacks stop. Also, they want an assurance that their rocket launchers are not targeted, and they would control the Strait of Hormuz. Americans, among other things, want the presidential side of the regime to be stronger in state affairs."
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